Labour stance increases chances Conservatives will LEAVE No.10 at the next General Election.

Twitter has been abuzz, especially among those on the political left after an email from Jeremy Corbyn was sent out to all Labour Party members announcing a change in the parties stance regarding Brexit.
The Labour party has now committed itself, should there be a referendum where it is either No Deal or Remain that it will  support Remain.

 This has come after months of verbal gymnastics from shadow spokespersons on the Brexit issue that would have befuddled even James Joyce himself.
This stance by Labour is very shrewd move in my book and I have no doubt that, while it was not the sole deciding factor in pushing the party to adopt this new position, the successes of the Liberal Democrats in the recent Europe and Council elections played their part for sure.
While there are quite a few issues Liberal Democrat and Labour Party supporters disagree on there is one clear issue by far that they are both as one on - their intense dislike of the idea of Boris Johnson becoming British Prime Minister.

I am very much a Twitter addict and I spent at least an hour a day in total checking out that social media platform.
From my lengthy observations of hashtags pertaining to UK politics there were many Lib Dem voters in Tory Constituencies where Labour has a chance of taking the seat at the next election, who were tweeting and essentially saying as bad as the thought of Boris Johnson was they could not yet in conscience consider voting tactically for Labour due to it's sitting on the fence on Brexit.

The Conservatives currently enjoy a 56 seat lead over Labour.
For this blog post I conducted a detailed analysis of the Westminster constituencies with a majority of LESS than 6000, which number 204 seats in total; the breakdown was Conservatives – 50, Labour 61, SNP 25, Lib Dems 9 and others (PC, DUP,SF,Ind) also 9.

My strong gut feeling is that in many Constituencies where the Liberal Democrats have not got a hope of taking a seat off the Tories, but Labour DO, many who voted for Vince Cables party in these areas in 2017 now have enough mental wriggle room (assuming Boris becomes PM that is) to as they say “hold their noses” and vote Labour.
If this was to occur AND the Brexit party was also to contest the next General election, this would mean seats with a 5-10,000 majority would also be very much in play and while some Labour seats could be lost, I would comfortably predict the Conservative losses would be multiples of that figure.
I could also very much see the SNP taking seats back from them in Scotland which would nip away at the current 56 seat lead Theresa May’s party currently enjoys over Labour.

When all scenarios are factored in this leads me to think that Labour stand a good chance of being the biggest party next time out, but it would be hard to see them getting an overall majority.
They may well need to look to the SNP AND the Liberal Democrats to makeup the umbers to ensure a comfortable majority to rule with, which in turn may well force Jeremy Corbyn’s hand and force him to rerun a referendum whereby his party wholeheartedly backs remaining in the EU.
As for the Brexit party; while they may well take a 5-15 seats on the night I would expect them to poll well in a lot of areas but fall short of taking a seat due to the First-Past-The-Post system.

There is another intriguing angle to all of this which concerns Sinn Féin.
What is Labour were only say 2 seats short when aligned with the SNP and turned to Sinn Fein to hep them avoid having to do a deal with the Lib Dems too the response from Sinn Fein would be far from straightforward if you ask me.
In such a scenario I could see many of the newer grassroots members of the All-Island party clamouring for it to do a deal to further advance the parties causes both North and South.

It is true to say that the Anti-Semitism issue has rocked the Labour Party but the vast majority of UK voters will have other issues such as the NHS, job security, education etc far higher up their list than concerns over what some people have said about the state of Israel and so forth.
The British economy is continuing it’s downward spiral and so long as the deep uncertainty bubbles away it will continue to travel downwards.

If Corbyn is allowed to out forward radical left promises during the next General Election this could well spur people in working class areas where turnout has traditionally been woeful to actually go out and vote, which would no doubt prove crucial to his party holding onto seats in quite a few marginal areas, and gaining some in those where the Tories are currently in the ascendancy

Make no mistake, this stance by Labour on the Brexit issue could be the rocket that powers the party back into No. 10 thanks to the tacit support of many Lib Dem voters.