Will Boris create a dangerous mirage to appease Farage?

How far will the PM go to keep Brexit Party out of the General Election show?

The recent European Parliament Elections in the UK (Yup it ACTUALLY happened) at the end of May was a complete bloodbath for the Conservative Party as they lost seats to the Brexit Party faster than the Irish Cricket team lost wickets against England on Friday last.
This predictably set off the alarms bells at Conservative HQ as they looked down the barrel of losing a plethora of constituencies to Labour or Lib Dems thanks to The Brexit Party gobbling away it’s majority in many constituencies.
Nigel Farage has oft stated that unless things are to his liking his newly found party WILL stand in the General Election.

We are in the great morass this country has witnessed for decades all because then Prime Minister David Cameron -  in similar circumstances to what is happening now – announced the holding on a Referendum on the UK’s EU membership of the EU to put a halt the gallop of the United  Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) as he squarely placed his parties insular interests to that of the British populous as a whole.

If the Brexit Party was to NOT contest the next UK General Election, the path would be much clearer for the Conservative Party in it’s quest to retain power, as the Lid Dem’s could very well be snapping at Labour’s heels in a number of constituencies, which in turn could be the panacea that sees the Tories keep a number of it’s seats in areas where it currently has a very low majority (E.G. Southampton-Itchen with a majority of just 31).

My gut feeling is that it will come out in the media in due course that right now there have been secret discussions between the Government party and The Brexit Party in an effort to thrash out an agreement which sees the Farage and Co not standing candidates for Westminster.
I shudder to think a to what red lines have been laid down and the consequences these will have for Ireland and the wider world economy.
You would also feel that Widdicombe and her ilk would demand that some of whatever was agreed is put in place BEFORE an election was called so they can say to their support base that Boris is living up to his promises as they announce the Brexit Party is abstaining from the General Election.

A total out and out rejection of the Backstop is one thing that is sure to be high on the BP list, but what else? 
Would they call for tariffs to be placed on a variety of sectors on the pretext of “protecting British jobs”?
If this was to happen the impact here would be beyond catastrophic.
For example, there are many Irish firms who produce own brand goods for UK Supermarkets which in turn sees thousands of people employed in the production of such products.
If tariffs were to be introduced, along with prolonged checks at the ports Asda, Sainsbury’s etc would likely decide that terminating their contracts with these Irish companies and handing them over to UK competitors was now a viable option for them.
I just don’t see what supermarkets in Germany or France would want to take over where their British counterparts left off and have pizzas and other products made here.

At times of recession in Ireland London was one of the cities that proved a haven for skilled Irish workers and provided an outlet for people to regain meaningful employment and if necessary send money home to tide family members who might be struggling over.
What if as part of this Tory-BP deal a red line issue was placing a restriction on the numbers of overseas workers coming to the UK to take up jobs then?
I dread to think about how high the dole queues would be now if all those people that moved to Canada, USA, Dubai, Australia and the UK in particular had not been allowed to take up jobs in those countries.

As of now the British Governments plan is akin to jumping off a cliff on October 31 and then seeking to climb back up the rock face despite breaking both arms as a result of their fall.
The Republic of Ireland is a group of people in a coach that was driven by the UK and for whom the only vehicle they can now avail of is a  mini, which means quite a few of it’s number will end up stranded and bereft due to their being 25 people on the side of the road, but only three seats in the back of the car.

We have seen during the de-facto renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) just how hard Washington plays ball.
Jacob Rees Mogg and others have tried to make out that due to the “special relationship” they claim still exists, a new trade agreement between the US and the UK will be a walk in the park.
In reality it will be akin to the London pussy cat squaring up to a Washington Bison, as the Trump Administration seeks to squeeze out every last drop of economic blood as it pummels a UK in turmoil.

In the last while the EU has agreed significant trade deals with the MERCOSUR countries in South America, Canada and Japan which would lead you to think the UK would be wanting to align as closely as possible with Brussels in order to attempt to also taste some of the fruits these deals may produce.
Thus it makes the course currently being charted by the British Government even more inordinately insane than it was. 

Personally I support the stance the Irish Government is taking as I firmly believe that in the absence of a viable alternative (and none has even remotely been spotted on the horizon) the backstop is a crucial element to any deal that will sign sealed and delivered.
The EU is continuing to remain resolute and stuck like super glue to it’s red lines and given all that is in play that is no surprise to anyone with a logical thought process.

Any trade the likes of the Netherlands and Germany loses as a result of BREXIT, these countries will surely be thinking they can recoup by stealing business from the UK that it currently has with countries such as China and Japan.
Make no doubt about it, overall London has far, far more to lose from all this than Berlin or Paris.

The losses to the Irish Economy due to a No Deal will be beyond seismic and how much help our EU counterparts will actually give is at the end of the day is a moot point.
Unlike what the Soviet Union back in the day did for Cuba, Nicaragua and other then radical left nations, I cannot see Denmark or Sweden buying loads of Irish products at a high price that they simply do not need.
It is apparent that the scope for this country of mitigating the losses of UK trade due to Brexit will be narrower than the runway at a small Himalayan airport.

I have just realised that it is little over 12 weeks until the October 31^st deadline will be upon us, and that knot in my stomach has tightened ever further…    

 

When it comes to Gemma o' Doherty - Ignorance is bliss..

Yet again after coming home from my walk and checking my Twitter via my Laptop my timeline is lit up by people sharing the same snippet of failed Presidential nominee and arch conspiracy quackjob Gemma o' Doherty.
In this case it was of the former Irish Independent journalist standing outside Google HQ qith a handful or so of her 'supporters'.
I really wish people would STOP sharing such clips - Yes what she says in them is often off the wall and/or downright defamatory, but at the end of the day all you are REALLY doing is adding more Oxygen to her publicity tank.

I wonder have these people ever thought how many of their Twitter 'friends' whose association is through a mutual like of Sligo Rovers FC or Ulster Rugby etc are now subscribers to all her social media platforms and are regularly avidly watching her videos whilst swallowing whole all she is saying; Ye may both have a passionate like of Sligo Rovers, but after that your paths could veer off in very different directions?

Most certainly we should not completely ignore the likes of the Shankill native and her brothers and sisters in hatemongering and anywhere they pop up online we should  continue to endeavour to have whatever Youtube Channel or Facebook page etc they have setup shut immediately.

Also many of the people who oppose Gemma and her ilk would have many friends who are foreign nationals or the Irish-born offspring of parent who were born elsewhere - What must they feel when they are exposed to the worst bits of Gemma and other's Alt-righters rants via your timeline?

It is easy to make people well aware of o' Doherty's misdeeds, be it Facebook/Twitter posts, video clips or exposing dodgy characters she maybe associating with WITHOUT sharing any of their Twitter posts or video clips.

So continue to screengrab her written posts and videos to use as evidence so the Social Media companies will shut her down, but instead of tem putting them out into the public domain a simple basic reference to the episode will have the desired effect of ensuring more and more are rightly repulsed by her actions WITHOUT inadvertently turning others into disciples of her keyboard army.
 

After all in this instance - NOT sharing is caring...

Labour stance increases chances Conservatives will LEAVE No.10 at the next General Election.

Twitter has been abuzz, especially among those on the political left after an email from Jeremy Corbyn was sent out to all Labour Party members announcing a change in the parties stance regarding Brexit.
The Labour party has now committed itself, should there be a referendum where it is either No Deal or Remain that it will  support Remain.

 This has come after months of verbal gymnastics from shadow spokespersons on the Brexit issue that would have befuddled even James Joyce himself.
This stance by Labour is very shrewd move in my book and I have no doubt that, while it was not the sole deciding factor in pushing the party to adopt this new position, the successes of the Liberal Democrats in the recent Europe and Council elections played their part for sure.
While there are quite a few issues Liberal Democrat and Labour Party supporters disagree on there is one clear issue by far that they are both as one on - their intense dislike of the idea of Boris Johnson becoming British Prime Minister.

I am very much a Twitter addict and I spent at least an hour a day in total checking out that social media platform.
From my lengthy observations of hashtags pertaining to UK politics there were many Lib Dem voters in Tory Constituencies where Labour has a chance of taking the seat at the next election, who were tweeting and essentially saying as bad as the thought of Boris Johnson was they could not yet in conscience consider voting tactically for Labour due to it's sitting on the fence on Brexit.

The Conservatives currently enjoy a 56 seat lead over Labour.
For this blog post I conducted a detailed analysis of the Westminster constituencies with a majority of LESS than 6000, which number 204 seats in total; the breakdown was Conservatives – 50, Labour 61, SNP 25, Lib Dems 9 and others (PC, DUP,SF,Ind) also 9.

My strong gut feeling is that in many Constituencies where the Liberal Democrats have not got a hope of taking a seat off the Tories, but Labour DO, many who voted for Vince Cables party in these areas in 2017 now have enough mental wriggle room (assuming Boris becomes PM that is) to as they say “hold their noses” and vote Labour.
If this was to occur AND the Brexit party was also to contest the next General election, this would mean seats with a 5-10,000 majority would also be very much in play and while some Labour seats could be lost, I would comfortably predict the Conservative losses would be multiples of that figure.
I could also very much see the SNP taking seats back from them in Scotland which would nip away at the current 56 seat lead Theresa May’s party currently enjoys over Labour.

When all scenarios are factored in this leads me to think that Labour stand a good chance of being the biggest party next time out, but it would be hard to see them getting an overall majority.
They may well need to look to the SNP AND the Liberal Democrats to makeup the umbers to ensure a comfortable majority to rule with, which in turn may well force Jeremy Corbyn’s hand and force him to rerun a referendum whereby his party wholeheartedly backs remaining in the EU.
As for the Brexit party; while they may well take a 5-15 seats on the night I would expect them to poll well in a lot of areas but fall short of taking a seat due to the First-Past-The-Post system.

There is another intriguing angle to all of this which concerns Sinn Féin.
What is Labour were only say 2 seats short when aligned with the SNP and turned to Sinn Fein to hep them avoid having to do a deal with the Lib Dems too the response from Sinn Fein would be far from straightforward if you ask me.
In such a scenario I could see many of the newer grassroots members of the All-Island party clamouring for it to do a deal to further advance the parties causes both North and South.

It is true to say that the Anti-Semitism issue has rocked the Labour Party but the vast majority of UK voters will have other issues such as the NHS, job security, education etc far higher up their list than concerns over what some people have said about the state of Israel and so forth.
The British economy is continuing it’s downward spiral and so long as the deep uncertainty bubbles away it will continue to travel downwards.

If Corbyn is allowed to out forward radical left promises during the next General Election this could well spur people in working class areas where turnout has traditionally been woeful to actually go out and vote, which would no doubt prove crucial to his party holding onto seats in quite a few marginal areas, and gaining some in those where the Tories are currently in the ascendancy

Make no mistake, this stance by Labour on the Brexit issue could be the rocket that powers the party back into No. 10 thanks to the tacit support of many Lib Dem voters.