Where now for
Greece?
So
the left in Europe is rightly celebrating, with many predicting the first
caricature on a radically changed Political Drawing Board has been drawn. With other Anti Austerity Parties riding high
in the polls, you can be sure there was many a double brandy was downed in
Davos last week. A lot of hopes have been pinned on Syriza's back, but can they
live up to them?
An
immediate hurdle is approaching at galloping speed. Two Big instalments are due
on Greece's debt in March and June. Will Syriza have the time & wriggle
room to try and change this in anyway? If they do not, and the 2 payments went
ahead as planned, could this piss off a good chunk of the people who supported Syriza,
or will these people take the position of this was the previous governments
doing, and give Syriza the full benefit of the doubt?
A
lot of Syriza's programme, from what I've seen of it, is in many areas
essentially headlines and no article. This has left us in the dark as to what
exactly the new Government will do with regards some of the key issues facing
the Greek economy and the working class. Will the bulk of the Greek working
class actively engage in moving to ensure Syriza are left no wriggle room, and
ensure they fulfiil as many of it's election promises as is feasibly possible,
or will they be able to do an Obama and roll back on promises, trying to make
out it's not their fault, but due to the EU/IMF, despite their best efforts,
they were unable to do X.Y and Z as they had promised. There was a period in Ireland after Fine Gael
and Labour took power, were they got away with a certain amount of things, as a
good number of people believed them when they claimed "That wasn't our doing
it was Fianna Fails".
But then there came a time when people had enough f that excuse, and began to realise
there were a number of Austerity measures that had nothing to do with the previous
government, but were wholly the creation of the new government. Thus their poll
ratings plummeted, as was evidence in the differences between the results of
the first Dublin West Bye Election and the second one. So if a rollback is started by Syriza, how
much of a "honeymoon period" would they have before things started to
go sour for them? I await the Programme for Government when it's published, and
I like many others will no doubt pore over it with hope, that it will indeed be
genuinely radical.
Personally
I am disappointed with the KKE. They had a chance to try and ensure Syriza was
held to account as much as is feasibly possible. They didn;t have to go into an explicit
coalition arrangement with Syriza. They could have agreed a memorandum of
understanding that if certain conditions were met and maintained, the KKE would
vote with Syriza in Parliament. to me this would be doing it's duty to best
represent the Greek working class.
Instead we have Syriza going into bed with an avowedly Right wing party,
and pondering what sort of Devillish deal they may have concocted to get their
support. My heart is hoping that
Independent Greeks will do a reverse Labour Party, and will capitulate,
agreeing to everything Syriza wants, as the whiff of Ministerial office proves
too strong an elixir for them. My head
says otherwise.
There
are many Economists/ economic commentators, (even those shrilling and
feverishly banging the Pro Austerity drum) who accept the current situation
facing Greece is unsustainable and must be changed. Even with the big writedown Greece got at the
last round of negotiations leaves Greece at a wholly unsustainable debt level of
170%. Putting it in comparison, I
remember in 2009-2010 Economic commentators on RTE Radio predicting armageddon
if Ireland's Debt rose to 140%. Thus it
is inevitable that a bullet will be bitten and there will be various powerful
figures sitting around a table with the Greek Government in either Frankfurt or
Brussels, intent on hammering out a deal.
Will what Syriza brings to the table be seismic and final, as the left
across Europe is hoping (And some, though most not) praying for? The other tack
Syriza might take, which is a concern of Leftists is that what it
initially brings to the table would be merely setting a out of a stall, and
then watering their offering down quite a bit by the conclusion of
negotiations.
So
there will be very interesting times in Greece over the next period. It really
has the potential to give another powerful shot in the arm to the Anti
Austerity agenda across Europe, with voters across many countries declaring
"I'll have what the Greeks are having", and we could see Podemos in
Spain, The Left Bloc in Portugal etc taking power either on their own, or as
the bigger party in a coalition. Some
have expressed concerns that Syriza could break a lot of it's promises and
severely dash the hopes and expectations of many across Europe. I am really and truly keeping my fingers
crossed the latter will not happen, but only time will tell...
