How far will
the PM go to keep Brexit Party out of the General Election show?
The recent
European Parliament Elections in the UK (Yup it ACTUALLY happened) at the end
of May was a complete bloodbath for the Conservative Party as they lost seats to
the Brexit Party faster than the Irish Cricket team lost wickets against England on
Friday last.
This predictably set off the alarms bells at Conservative HQ as they looked
down the barrel of losing a plethora of constituencies to Labour or Lib Dems
thanks to The Brexit Party gobbling away it’s majority in many constituencies.
Nigel Farage has oft stated that unless things are to his liking his newly
found party WILL stand in the General Election.
We are in
the great morass this country has witnessed for decades all because then Prime Minister
David Cameron - in similar circumstances
to what is happening now – announced the holding on a Referendum on the UK’s EU
membership of the EU to put a halt the gallop of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) as he
squarely placed his parties insular interests to that of the British populous
as a whole.
If the Brexit Party was to NOT contest the next UK General Election, the path
would be much clearer for the Conservative Party in it’s quest to retain power,
as the Lid Dem’s could very well be snapping at Labour’s heels in a number of
constituencies, which in turn could be the panacea that sees the Tories keep a
number of it’s seats in areas where it currently has a very low majority (E.G.
Southampton-Itchen with a majority of just 31).
My gut feeling is that it will come out in the media in due course that right
now there have been secret discussions between the Government party and The
Brexit Party in an effort to thrash out an agreement which sees the Farage and
Co not standing candidates for Westminster.
I shudder to think a to what red lines have been laid down and the consequences
these will have for Ireland and the wider world economy.
You would also feel that Widdicombe and her ilk would demand that some of
whatever was agreed is put in place BEFORE an election was called so they can
say to their support base that Boris is living up to his promises as they
announce the Brexit Party is abstaining from the General Election.
A total out and out rejection of the Backstop is one thing that is sure to be high
on the BP list, but what else?
Would they call for tariffs to be placed on a variety of sectors on the pretext
of “protecting British jobs”?
If this was to happen the impact here would be beyond catastrophic.
For example, there are many Irish firms who produce own brand goods for UK Supermarkets
which in turn sees thousands of people employed in the production of such
products.
If tariffs were to be introduced, along with prolonged checks at the ports Asda,
Sainsbury’s etc would likely decide that terminating their contracts with these
Irish companies and handing them over to UK competitors was now a viable option
for them.
I just don’t see what supermarkets in Germany or France would want to take over
where their British counterparts left off and have pizzas and other products
made here.
At times of recession in Ireland London was one of the cities that proved a
haven for skilled Irish workers and provided an outlet for people to regain
meaningful employment and if necessary send money home to tide family members
who might be struggling over.
What if as part of this Tory-BP deal a red line issue was placing a restriction
on the numbers of overseas workers coming to the UK to take up jobs then?
I dread to think about how high the dole queues would be now if all those
people that moved to Canada, USA, Dubai, Australia and the UK in particular had
not been allowed to take up jobs in those countries.
As of now
the British Governments plan is akin to jumping off a cliff on October 31 and
then seeking to climb back up the rock face despite breaking both arms as a
result of their fall.
The Republic of Ireland is a group of people in a coach that was driven by the
UK and for whom the only vehicle they can now avail of is a mini, which means quite a few of it’s number
will end up stranded and bereft due to their being 25 people on the side of the
road, but only three seats in the back of the car.
We have seen during the de-facto renegotiation of the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) just how hard Washington plays ball.
Jacob Rees Mogg and others have tried to make out that due to the “special
relationship” they claim still exists, a new trade agreement between the US and
the UK will be a walk in the park.
In reality it will be akin to the London pussy cat squaring up to a Washington
Bison, as the Trump Administration seeks to squeeze out every last drop of economic
blood as it pummels a UK in turmoil.
In the last while the EU has agreed significant trade deals with the MERCOSUR
countries in South America, Canada and Japan which would lead you to think the
UK would be wanting to align as closely as possible with Brussels in order to
attempt to also taste some of the fruits these deals may produce.
Thus it makes the course currently being charted by the British Government even
more inordinately insane than it was.
Personally I support the stance the Irish Government is taking as I firmly
believe that in the absence of a viable alternative (and none has even remotely
been spotted on the horizon) the backstop is a crucial element to any deal that
will sign sealed and delivered.
The EU is continuing to remain resolute and stuck like super glue to it’s red
lines and given all that is in play that is no surprise to anyone with a
logical thought process.
Any trade
the likes of the Netherlands and Germany loses as a result of BREXIT, these countries
will surely be thinking they can recoup by stealing business from the UK that
it currently has with countries such as China and Japan.
Make no doubt about it, overall London has far, far more to lose from all this
than Berlin or Paris.
The losses
to the Irish Economy due to a No Deal will be beyond seismic and how much help our
EU counterparts will actually give is at the end of the day is a moot point.
Unlike what the Soviet Union back in the day did for Cuba, Nicaragua and other then
radical left nations, I cannot see Denmark or Sweden buying loads of Irish
products at a high price that they simply do not need.
It is apparent that the scope for this country of mitigating the losses of UK
trade due to Brexit will be narrower than the runway at a small Himalayan
airport.
I have just
realised that it is little over 12 weeks until the October 31st deadline
will be upon us, and that knot in my stomach has tightened ever further…
