Monday, July 8, 2019

Bordering on the head-wrecking



Yet again upon switching on the BBC as another debate on Brexit is in full flow I hear another jingoistic leave-at-all-costs Tory MP talk about the 'Irish' Border, and how it is Dublin that is to blame for all these travails.
I have a newsflash for all you Union Jack hat wearers - it is NOT the Irish but in truth the BRITISH border we are talking about that separates the two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland.
The people of the Republic of Ireland did not vote to leave the European Union (nor did the people in the 6 counties of Ulster that make up Northern Ireland), we have not rejected attempts at putting a plausible workable solution in place that ensures a soft border remains as is.
In fact it was NOT the Irish Government who proposed the backstop idea - take a bow Theresa May and you're Whitehall mandarins!

Like many of my fellow countrymen and women I have visited Great Britain a number of times in my lifetime and I love visiting London.
 My problem is not with the British people whom I have received the warmest of welcomes from whenever I went across the water on holiday;  My anger and ire is reserved for those MP's in Westminster who are willing to frogmarch their country over the plank into very uncertain waters -when the ship they are steering is only yards away from a safe harbour.
Under no circumstances does anyone I know want a return to a hard border and we would much rather be in a position where we can continue to buy out favourite UK goods in our supermarkets.

If I was a betting man I would say there would be many others who've watched a Tory MP or Brexit MEP rattle on with the palaver that "technological solutions are an easy way of avoiding the need for the backstop or a customs union" etc and in a fit of rage roared at the television "THEN TELL US WHAT THESE TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS ARE!", as another LEAVE shrieking protagonist yet again stumbles like a drunk man on a bouncy castle when asked to outline this Plan B they, in very abstract terms vaguer than Crytocurrency websites terms and condition, speak about.

Let's be quite clear about all of this - It really comes down to either the (A) UK remaining in the Customs Market or (B) accepting and implementing the backstop if they want the border to remain anywhere near as open as it is now.
There is NO other way to avoid a hard border, if neither of the two options above are implemented a hard border will be in place FULL STOP.

And as for all this jingoistic palaver from a number of Tory MP's (and some Labour MP's such as Kate Hoey etc) that the likes of Germany would be scared out of their wits over a 'No Deal' scenario and would come crawling on their knees in tears, begging London do a deal - puhleaaase!
Yes it is undeniable that the United Kingdom is one of the top 10 trading partners that Germany deals with, believe you me, Berlin's attention is firmly focussed on China, the USA and a host of other nations as it would not only feel confident in shielding themselves from the loss of UK trade by grabbing business  with these countries that the UK currently does which could very well earn it MORE money than it currently does with Queen Elizabeth II's Kingdom.

I dare any Leave MP or Brexit Party MEP to go to Strabane or Jonesborough and see how long you would last spouting your devoid of any sort of evidence clap-trap ye continue to proffer on their airwaves and into our living rooms via our TV screens.
Us Irish want to continue trading with our neighbour across the water (who make far more money off us than we them) and hope that common sense will prevail which will see a plausible deal voted on by the House of Commons which can allow us all breathe a heavy sigh of relief in the process.

With all the talk today about the Greek election result, many commentators were reminding us that Alexis Tsipras  when he was Prime Minister talked tough about going toe to toe with the European Union and not giving an inch, but in the end knowing how heavily the cards were stacked against his country, gave in and did a deal in the end.
I feel this is the way the next Prime Minister will go as there simply is no other way for him to go be it Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt that takes the reins.
My view has been strengthened by the recent deals between the Mercosur block of countries, Japan  and the European Union, as London would be like the kid seeking a 'backer' off his friend on his BMX as it would get him to his destination quicker, as even LEAVEers  would love to be able to enjoy some of the advantages - as they see it - the countries remaining inside the EU will enjoy under these deals.
The easiest and simplest route to obtaining a near carbon copy deal between Mercosur and the UK would - to my mind - be achieved via  remaining in the Customs Union and circumstances will continue to dictate that as time goes by the chances of the UK remaining inside that tent will only strengthen by the day.

So while I still remain very anxious over the current situation my gut feeling is that No Deal will be avoided as pragmatism finally beats  nationalistic fervour by a nose at the final hurdle.
P.S. a note to all those LEAVE MP/MEP's - what bit of the oft repeated "There will be NO renegotiation of the deal" that has been echoed loud and clear from Brussels, do ye not get?

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