There is much confusion regarding the opinion polls, with some polls showing The Conservatives only 1% ahead of Labour, but another poll has the Conservatives 12% ahead.
This disparity gave me quite a bee in my bonnet, so I decided to draw up a list of the marginal seats - In this case seats where the winning margin is less than 5,000 votes.
It is very interesting to nite that in the vast bulk of constituencies. the UKIP vote was higher than the winning margin, in a number of cases it was vastly bigger.
Polls show the U,K,I,P, tumbling from the 13% in got in the 2015 General Election, to 4%.
With analysts declaring the vast bulk of this deserted U.K.I.P. support is going to Labour, and strong signs the youth vote will be noticeably up on 2015, I genuinely feel we could be in hung parliament territory come 8am Friday June 9th.
Below is the list of Marginals, where the margin is less than 5,000.
I have included the winning margin and the U.K.I.P. vote from 2015
Unfortunately it did not transfer neatly from ms word where i first wrote it up.
My email address is s_heffo@hotmail.com
Thanks for taking the time to read my blog,
Seán Heffernan.
CONSTITUENCY MAJORITY WINNINER 2015 UKIP VOTE
1. ABERCONWY 4,999 CONSERVATIVE 3,467
2. AYLN & DEESIDE 3,500 LABOUR 7,260
3. ARFON 4,600 LABOUR 2.277
4. BARROW & FURNESS 795 LABOUR 5.070
5. BEDFORD 800 CONSERVATIVE 4,434
6. BIRMIN EDGBASTON 2,700 LABOUR 4,154
7. BIRMIN NORTHFIELD 2,500 LABOUR 7.106
8. BISHOP AUCKLAND 3,600 LABOUR 7,015
9. BLACKPOOL NORTH 3,350 CONSERVATIVE 5,823
10. BLACKPOOL SOUTH 2,400 LABOUR 5,613
11. BOLTON NORTH EAST 4,400 LABOUR 8,117
12. BOLTON WEST 801 CONSERVATIVE 7,428
13. BRIGEND 1,900 LABOUR 5,911
14. BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN 710 CONSERVSTIVE 4,446
15. BRIGHT PAVILLION 2,500 LABOUR 2,724
16. BRISTOL EAST 3,980 LABOUR 7.152
17. BRISTOL N/W 4,900 CONSERVATIVE 4,889
18. BROXTOWE 4,300 CONSERVATIVE 5,674
19. BURY NORTH 378 CONSERVATIVE 5,595
20. BURY SOUTH 4,922 LABOUR 6,299
21. CALDER VALLEY 4,427 CONSERVATIVE 5,950
22. CANNOCK CHASE 4,923 CONSERVATIVE 8,224
23. CARDIFF NORTH 2.137 CONSERVATIVE 3,953
24. CARLISLE 2,744 CONSERVATIVE 5,277
25. CAMARTHEN EAST 1,205 LABOUR 4,363
26. CHESTER CITY 93 LABOUR 4,148
27. CLWYD SOUTH 2,402 LABOUR 5,480
28. COPELAND 2564 LABOUR 6,148
29. CORBY 2412 CONSERVATIVE 7,708
30. COVENTRY N/W 4,509 LABOUR 7,101
31. COVENTRY SOUTH 3,143 LABOUR 5,709
32. CREWE 3,620 CONSERVATIVE 7,252
33. CROYDEN CENTRAL 165 CONSERVATIVE 4,810
34. DARLINGTON 3140 LABOUR 5.392
35. DELYN 2,930 LABOUR 6,150
36. DERBY NORTH 41 CONSERVATIVE 6,523
37. DEWSBURY 1451 LABOUR 6,649
38. DUDLEY NORTH 4,181 LABOUR 9,113
39. DUDLEY SOUTH 3,820 CONSERVATIVE 7,236
40. EALING CENTRAL 274 LABOUR 1,926
41. ELTHAM 2,693 LABOUR 6,481
42. ENFILD NORTH 1,086 LABOUR 4,133
43. ENFIELD SOUTHGATE 4,753 CONSERVATIVE 2.109
44. EREWASH 3,584 CONSERVATIVE 7,792
45. GEDLING 2986 LABOUR 6,930
46. GOWER 27 CONSERVATIVE 4,773
47. GREAT GRIMSBY 4,540 LABOUR 8,417
48. HALESOWEN 3.082 CONSERVATIVE 7,280
49. HALIFAX 482 LABOUR 5,621
50. HAMPSTEAD 1,138 LABOUR 1,532
51. HARROW EAST 4,777 CONSERVATIVE 2,333
52. HARROW WEST 2,205 LABOUR 2,047
53. HASTINGS 4,796 CONSERVATIVE 6,786
54. HENDON 3,724 CONSERVATIVE 2,595
55. HIGH PEAK 4,894 CONSERVATIVE 5,811
56. HOVE 1.236 LABOUR 3,265
57. HYNDBURN 4,400 LABOUR 9.154
58. ILLFORD NORTH 589 LABOUR 4,355
59. IPSWICH 3,643 CONSERVATIVE 5,703
60. KNIGHLEY 3,073 CONSERVATIVE 5,662
61. LANCASTER & FWOOD 1.256 LABOUR 4.060
62. LEEDS NORTH WEST 4.958 LABOUR 7,256
63. LINCOLN 1.433 CONSERVATIVE 5,271
64. MIDDLESBROUGH S 2,268 LABOUR 6,935
65. MORECAMBE 4,590 CONSERVATIVE 5,358
66. MORELY & OUTWOOD 442 CONSERVATIVE 7,951
67. NEWCASTLE UND L 659 LABOUR 7,252
68. NEWPORT WEST 3,540 LABOUR 6,134
69. NEWPORT EAST 4,705 LABOUR 6,466
70. NORTH EAST DERBY 1,883 LABOUR 7,631
71. N WARWICKSHIRE 2,973 CONSERVATIVE 8,256
72. NORTHAMPTON N 3,245 CONSERVATIVE 6,354
73. NORTHAMPTON S 3,793 CONSERVATIVE 7,114
74. NORWICH N 4,463 CONSERVATIVE 5,986
75. NUNEATON 4,882 CONSERVATIVE 6,582
76. PETERBOROUGH 1,925 CONSERVATIVE 7,485
77. PLYMOUTH MOOR V 1,026 CONSERVATIVE 9,152
78. PLYMOUTH S&D 523 CONSERVATIVE 6,371
79. PEMBROKESHIRE 4,969 CONSERVATIVE 4,257
80. PUDSEY 4,501 CONSERVATIVE 4,689
81. SCUNTHORPE 3,134 LABOUR 6,329
82. SHERWOOD 4,647 CONSERVATIVE 7,399
83. SOUTHAMPTON IT 2,316 CONSERVATIVE 6,010
84. SOUTHPORT 3,862 CONSERVATIVE 7,429
85. STEVENAGE 4,995 CONSERVATIVE 6,684
86. STOKE NORTH 4,736 LABOUR 9,542
87. STROUD 4,866 CONSERVATIVE 4,848
88. TELFORD 730 CONSERVATIVE 7,330
89. THURROCK 536 CONSERVATIVE 15,718
90. TOOTING 2,842 LABOUR 1,537
91. VALE OF CLYWD 237 CONSERVATIVE 4,577
92. WAKEFIELD 2,613 LABOUR 7,862
93. WALLSALL N 1,937 LABOUR 8,122
94. WARRINGTON S 2,750 CONSERVATIVE 4,909
95. WAVENEY 2,408 CONSERVATIVE 7,580
96. WEAVER VALE 806 CONSERVATIVE 4,547
97. WESTMINSTER N 1,977 LABOUR 1,489
98. WIRRAL SOUTH 4,599 LABOUR 3,737
99. WIRRALWEST 51 LABOUR 2,772
100.
WOLVERHAMP
S.W.801 LABOUR 4,310
101.
WORKINGTON 4,686 LABOUR 7,538
102.
WREXHAM 1,831 LABOUR 5.072
103.
YNS MÓN 3,478 LABOUR 5,1,52
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