I am hearing
a lot these past few days about the supposed great momentum that has built up around
Catherine Connolly’s successful bid for the Presidency.
People are now saying that if SF and other opposition parties were to agree to
a proper election pact at the next General Election, it could bring about
massive change as to how the country is run.
SF would have a core vote of about 8%
and anything above that is people “lending” them their vote.
There is a sizable anger with the Government.
Some will vote at the next election but another sizable block have a “plague on
all your houses” attitude and will not vote,
A question I oft asked myself is “Why are SF - and to a much smaller extent what
we call “The Far Right” - mopping up
this support, but the likes of Labour Soc Dems and PBP-SP remaining essentially
stagnant?
In large part, I think people who are “lending” their vote to SF, see that what
they are promising is not much different than what the Government had promised,
but it is better and believe SF can and will do it.
In hindsight, SF’s backroom team have an easy enough job of essentially dividing
the Governments figure by 100 and multiplying it by 120%, to get the meat for
their plan/prd eomise.
Also a big deal is the fact the Department of Finance every year says their
figures add up etc.
In contrast to Soc Dems or PBP who will say “30,000 homes a year is not good
enough, we will build 90,000 houses a year”
but cannot say how and where they will do it. how much it will cost and how
they will fund it..
Also some people drifting to SF might think that since their plans are not
moving the dial that much, in comparison to present Government policy , FF and/or
FG would agree to it if SF went into coalition with them.
Also unlike Labour in 2011. SF are making anywhere near the number of cast iron
promises and Eamonn Gilmore and Co did 14 years ago.
And as regards the next election, FF and FG might end up keeping most of their
seats by virtue of
Sizable numbers of people eligible to vote staying at home
The Anti Government vote splintering in many different directions and FF and FG
getting a seat/ 2nd seat on the last count, well below the quota, as
there was not enough of a domino of transfers from eliminated PBP, Soc Dem or
Labour Candidates to the strongest non SF Anti Government candidate , to enable
them to overtake a FF or FG Candidate for the last seat in a constituency,
The interesting
thing to watch out for at the next election is the “Independent” vote.
If they were to ger 10-12 more seats overall than they currently have, the
question is whose seats would they be talking?
With growing anti Immigrant sentiment you cannot rule out candidates making
this issue their core policy platform winning Dail seats in a proper
manifestation of a “protest vote”.
So the real possibility could ensue that there could be no other Government
combination besides one that includes Sinn Fein.
There are those on the “Far Left” in Ireland making a big deal of the “unity” shown in Catherine Connolly’s election victory,
that if Sinn Fein, Soc Dems Labour and
PBP joined forces, they could/would have the momentum to relegate Fianna Fail
and Fine Gael to the opposition benches.
If this was to happen, many would deem
this to be a seismic development.
But lets be realistic as to real state of play at the moment.
If it was proposed that these various parties were to hold talks about holding
talks, regarding a possible election pact, there would be a big row over what biscuits
they would serve at the coffee break.
Also election
pacts come about as a result of different political parties coming to an agreed
position (sometimes very loose in nature) on the key issues of the day, which
they then put to the electorate.
I think that the gulf between the positions People Before Profit have on
certain issues compared to the stance of Labour and Sinn Fein (With Soc Dems
not to far off both their positions) would be too wide to in anyway bridge.
Also in trying to sway voters who “lent” FF and FG their vote the last time, SF,
Lab and SD would baulk at some of PBP’s “Red Lines” for fear of scaring these part-time FF and FG
voters away;
With this cohort deciding Better the devil we know” and voting the same as they
did in the last General Election.
